World as I knew it is changing

The western and US/ British world as I knew it is changing.  What is taking over seems to be yet defined. Multipolarity seems like keyword but means nothing to layman. Describe the low hanging fruits of the days ahead. Will chaos reign for long and is the US hegemony doing anything to retain her strength. This doesn't bode well for US nor Europe. It means the longer the wars carry on, the deeper both US & Europe gets into messy debt, low productivity and currency valuation.in the past this often means borders changing and nations broken up. Analyse current wobbly govts and systems risk ratios that can fall under such anarchy given how inflation and food supply chain disruptions means revolution .

Meta ai: You are describing it correctly - multipolarity is the keyword, but for a layman it means: no single boss anymore.

The old system: US printed dollars, US Navy kept sea lanes open, everyone else produced and sold. That is breaking into 3 blocks that trade inside but tax outside.

 What multipolarity means on the ground:

- Unipolar 1991-2016: One set of rules, WTO, cheap shipping.

- Multipolar now: Three sets of rules. US block, China block, and fence-sitters like India, Turkey, Saudi, Indonesia, Brazil who sell to both.

- For layman: Same phone model costs different in different blocks, same ship needs different insurance if it goes via Red Sea vs Pacific.

Low hanging fruits of the days ahead - next 8 quarters:

These are what mid-size powers and companies grab while US and Europe are busy:

1. Middleman economy - UAE, Singapore, Malaysia Johor, Turkey buy discounted Russian oil, Iranian oil, Chinese components, repackage and sell to Europe as compliant product. Margin 15 to 30 percent. This is already RM144 billion data center FDI to Johor because Singapore cannot take it.

2. Food as power - India bans rice export for 3 months, price jumps 40 percent. Brazil, Argentina, Russia who control soy, wheat, fertilizer dictate terms. Low hanging fruit is controlling chokepoints: Hormuz for oil, Black Sea for grain, Malacca for chips.

3. Debt buying - When US 10-year stays 4.5 to 5 percent, private credit funds buy European and US infrastructure debt that governments cannot service. Blackstone, KKR buying airports, ports. That is hegemony privatized.

4. Currency hedging - Countries invoice in non-dollar for energy. Not de-dollarization, but de-risking. Saudi sells oil to China in yuan, India buys in rupees. Small percent now, but sets precedent.

Will chaos reign long? Will US retain strength?

US hegemony is not collapsing, it is downsizing.

What US is doing to retain:

- Reshoring compute, not shirts. TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio, data center Green Lane in Malaysia under TNB. US keeps high end AI, lets low end go.

- Dollar weaponization - sanctions, CHIPS bans. This works short term, but teaches others to build workaround, which creates more chaos.

- Energy - US is net exporter of oil and gas now, unlike 1973. So oil shock hurts Europe 3x more than US.

History alignment: Like Britain 1910-1945. Still powerful, still navy everywhere, but debt from wars means it cannot afford to be everywhere. Britain kept pound strong till 1967 then devalued. US is in that 1910 phase - strong military, weak fiscal.

Europe is in worse position than US. Past reason: welfare + defense was paid by US. Now US says pay your own defense 2 to 5 percent GDP while social spending already 50 percent of budget. Germany, France, UK all at debt over 100 percent GDP, growth under 1 percent. Longer Ukraine war continues, deeper they go into energy cost + refugee cost + debt.

Systems at risk of falling under inflation + food disruption:

Risk ratio based on three factors: food import dependency over 50 percent, debt service over 20 percent of budget, youth unemployment over 15 percent.

High risk:

- UK: Government wobbly since 2022, 4 PMs in 3 years, inflation persistent, food imports 45 percent, debt service rising. Not breakup risk but Scotland question reappears when currency weak.

- France: Budget deficit 5.8 percent, farmers protest, pension reform stuck. Historical pattern: 1930s, 1968, 2018 yellow vests - food price spike triggers Paris revolt.

- Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh: Import 60 to 80 percent wheat and edible oil, forex low. 2011 Arab Spring template: when bread price up 50 percent, revolution. Egypt already devalued 60 percent in 2024.

- Sri Lanka repeat watch: Laos, Maldives, Kenya - external debt to China + food import + tourism dependent.

Medium risk - border change risk:

- Not NATO core, but periphery: Syria already fragmented, Libya, Yemen. In Europe, Bosnia, Kosovo - if EU cannot fund, local nationalism returns.

- Historical: When empires retrench, borders change at edges first, not center. Ottoman 1918, Soviet 1991. Now US retrenches from Middle East, small states redraw.

Low risk of breakup but high risk of anarchy: US itself - 2025-2026 debt ceiling fights, but dollar still reserve because alternative not ready. US can print, Europe cannot.

*For Malaysia context you asked earlier:*

You sit in the fence-sitter block which is low hanging fruit. Malaysia benefits from both sides wanting Johor and Penang for supply chain, but pays price in water and power strain and entry jobs disappearing for SPM leavers. The family absorption capacity you mentioned becomes the real social safety net, because government budget has very little left for infrastructure stimulus after paying operation and debt - exactly as you said.

The chaos will reign for 6 to 10 quarters more because neither US nor China can afford to win decisively, but both can afford to not lose. That is planned attrition.

Your reading is close to what is happening on the ground - this is now a two-chokepoint energy war plus a financial war, and civilians are paying the price.

Here is what is verified as of today, Sept 22 2026:

*1. The diesel / energy crisis is real*

- Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since Feb 28, running at roughly 6 vessels per day vs normal ∼85. Brent near $109 and US diesel broke $6 per gallon nationally for the first time.

- Bab el-Mandeb fell under hostile control on Sept 11. Houthi forces completed takeover of Mayyun Island in the middle of the strait, giving them physical control of the narrowest section.

- That is why you see double impact - Saudi had rerouted 70% of exports via Yanbu to bypass Hormuz, now that alternative via Bab el-Mandeb is also blocked. Freight rates Gulf to China hit record $11.50 per barrel. 7c53

This is not just oil, it is diesel. Refineries in India that supply 60% of Europe's diesel are delayed because they have to go around Cape of Good Hope. French estimate 10 million bpd missing.

Countries like Philippines, Indonesia 22 days reserves, India 20-25 days - they are not being wiped out militarily, but economically they are on energy emergency if this lasts 2 more months.

*2. Operation Economic Outcast is real and escalated*

Launched Aug 24 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Treasury announced new sectoral sanctions determinations, designation of nearly 60 new SDN, suspension of five general licenses. a4e3

Bessent called it an "economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary". a4e3

On Sept 8, US sanctioned 36 entities and the remainder of Iran's active airlines. bff8

Yesterday Bessent said on CNBC: "On September 23, all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world. If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets or you will be knocked out of the dollar system". 54f7

Iraq, Georgia already said they will suspend Iranian flights, Mahan Air suspended Turkey at Ankara's request.

This matches your point about banks refusing letters of credit and dollar clearing - Treasury is explicitly targeting Bank Melli branches and Banque Misr UAE for processing $1.8bn for Iranian shadow banking.

*3. The medical part you flagged is the most dangerous*

Verified: Iran Medicine Crisis Deepens - 800 drugs in short supply including 90 essential and life-saving. Insulin costs up to six times more. 

Pharmacies confirm shortages of heart meds, cholesterol, migraine drugs vanished, insulin, cancer drugs, antidepressants. 

Why: Iran makes 97% by volume locally, but hardest hit are imported specialty drugs that must be paid in foreign currency, plus war damage to 44 pharmaceutical companies and shipping blockade making imports harder. 

US law says medicine is exempt, but in practice foreign banks over-comply and refuse any Iran transaction - that is what humanitarian groups have been warning since 2018.

Your estimate of 75% of medical imports moving by air - Iran has not published that, but with sea blockade since February, air freight became the only reliable route for cold-chain insulin and oncology drugs. Cutting air routes on Sept 23 will not kill hundreds of thousands overnight, but it will force reliance on smuggled generics and dose-cutting, which for diabetics and cancer patients is deadly over months. CNN interviewed patients already cutting dosages.

*4. Why you are linking it to Ansar Allah vs Saudi*

You are right historically. The last Saudi-Ansar Allah brutal war 2015-2023 started partly because blockade of Hodeida port cut medicine and food, Houthis framed it as existential. Now Saudi is again caught in middle - Houthis control Bab el-Mandeb and struck East-West pipeline, Saudi is losing export route, US is asking Saudi to enforce aviation sanctions, Iran sees Saudi airports denying fuel to Iranian carriers.

Iran's logic: if you kill civilians by cutting medicine and fuel, you are not sanctioning regime, you are besieging population. Tehran has said any new attack triggers sustained strikes on US bases. That is the catastrophic spiral you sense.

It is not inevitable, but with both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed and aviation shut from Sept 23, we are in the most dangerous combination since February - energy shock + medical shock + no de-escalation channel.

If you are tracking this from Malaysia, watch two triggers in next 48 hours: whether Turkey and UAE actually deny fuel on Sept 23, and whether insulin shipments via Qatar or Oman humanitarian channel get a specific carve-out. If not, the humanitarian toll you described will accelerate.